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2026 United States Senate election in Texas

For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas
November 3, 2026
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

John Cornyn
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primaries. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth term. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Representative Wesley Hunt and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Republicans have won every Senate election in Texas since 1990, and an incumbent senator has not lost a primary since 1970.

Republican primary

Background

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.[1][2][3][4]

The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate.[5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads.[6][7] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his.[8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary.[9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020.[10]

The election also comes amidst efforts by the state Republican primary to close its primary election to only registered members. Legislation aimed at allowing closed primaries failed in the legislature, leading to the party suing the state, alleging the existing law violates the First Amendment.[11] Paxton, despite being the state's attorney general, refused to defend the existing law in court, drawing criticism from those who believe he would benefit electorally from a closed primary.[12]

Campaign

Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[13] This has led to many Senate Republican leaders to publicly back Cornyn, urging Donald Trump to endorse him.[14] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race.[15] Hunt entered the race in late 2025, further scrambling the race and all but assuring a runoff between two of the three men in May 2026.[16]

All three candidates have jockeyed for the endorsement of Donald Trump, making their support for him and his agenda major parts of their campaign platforms, but Trump has not endorsed any of them as of February 2026.[17] Cornyn has maintained a substantial fundraising lead over the other candidates throughout the race, spending much of it attacking Paxton.[18] Early three-way polling has been very narrow, usually with Cornyn and Paxton making the runoff and no candidate close to winning outright.[19] While campaigning, all three have tapped into Islamophobic sentiment in their advertisements and actions, with Cornyn and Paxton specifically targeting the EPIC City development in Collin County with investigations and lawsuits.[20][21][22]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

John Cornyn
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Ken Paxton
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Wesley Hunt
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives

Fundraising

Italics indicate withdrawn candidate

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025[A]
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Virgil Bierschwale (R) $9,918 $9,657 $261
John Cornyn (R) $10,030,736 $4,802,390 $5,861,807
Wesley Hunt (R) $1,371,508 $2,343,552 $1,515,133
Gurlez Khan (R) $9,342 $9,861 $0
Ken Paxton (R) $5,320,191 $1,654,744 $3,665,447
Tony Schmoker (R) $2,500 $3,107 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[72]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		John
Cornyn 		Wesley
Hunt 		Ken
Paxton 		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270toWin[73] January 15, 2025 – February 9, 2026 February 9, 2026 27.7% 19.7% 30.7% 25.2% Paxton +3.0%
RealClearPolitics[74] December 1, 2025 - February 3, 2026 February 9, 2026 27.8% 19.5% 29.8% 22.9% Paxton +2.0%
Decision Desk HQ[75] May 11, 2025 – February 3, 2026 February 12, 2026 25.4% 20.0% 29.8% 24.8% Paxton +4.4%
Race to the WH[76] January 4, 2025 – February 2, 2026 February 6, 2026 26.1% 21.8% 27.2% 24.9% Paxton +1.1%
Average 26.8% 20.3% 29.4% 24.5% Paxton +2.6%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Wesley
Hunt 		Ken
Paxton 		Other Undecided
Pulse Decision Science (R)[77][B] February 8–11, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 15% 36% – 22%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[78][C] February 1–3, 2026 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 18% 34% – 22%
J.L. Partners (R)[79] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 26% 27% – 21%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[80][D] January 29 – February 1, 2026 – (LV) – 31% 24% 29% – 16%
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 31% 17% 38% 2%[c] 12%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.1% 26% 16% 27% 2% 29%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[80][D] January 5–11, 2026 – (LV) – 29% 19% 26% – 26%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[83][E] December 14–17, 2025 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 16% 38% – 8%
1892 Polling (R)[80][D] December 4, 2025 – (LV) – 28% 19% 29% – 24%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[84][F] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 28% 33% – 12%
J.L. Partners[85] December 1–3, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 24% 24% 29% – 23%
co/efficient (R)[86] December 1–3, 2025 1,022 (LV) ± 3.07% 28% 19% 27% – 26%
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][G] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 22% 22% 32% – 24%
Peak Insights (R)[88][D] November 20–25, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 18% 33% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[89][H] November 21–22, 2025 857 (LV) ± 3.3% 25% 26% 36% – 13%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[90][I] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 21% 31% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 27% 26% 34% – 13%
Harper Polling (R)[92][J] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 24% 25% – 25%
Hunt Research (R)[43][93] October 6–10, 2025 1,097 (LV) ± 2.96% 24% 19% 28% – 29%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 31% 24% 34% – 11%
Peak Insights (R)[88][D] October 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 19% 36% – 11%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 33% 22% 34% – 11%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[95][D] September 22–28, 2025 1,142 (LV) – 33% 21% 28% – 18%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 492 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 14% 31% – 26%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[97][K] September 20–22, 2025 760 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 17% 31% – 20%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[98][H] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11%
38% 23% 39% – –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 29% 23% 37% – 11%
Texas Southern University[99] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 30% 22% 35% – 13%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 32% 15% 38% 15%
G1 Research[100] Late June 2025 – – 28% 17% 41% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] June 22–23, 2025 – (V) – 28% 17% 41% – 14%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[101][102][E] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 32% 13% 49% – 7%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 28% 12% 47% – 13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 15% 34% – 24%
Quantus Insights (R)[104][105][L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 16% 46% – –
American Opportunity Alliance (R)[106][107] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 14% 43% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 27% 18% 40% – 15%
The Tarrance Group (R)[108][I] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 34% 19% 44% – –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 26% 18% 42% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 26% 13% 46% – 15%
Hypothetical polling
John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Ken
Paxton 		Other Undecided
J.L. Partners (R)[79] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% – 19%
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 40% 51% – 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[84][F] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][G] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 34% 44% – 22%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[90][I] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 46% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 43% 46% – 11%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 43% – 13%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 493 (RV) – 39% 37% – 23%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[97][K] September 20–22, 2025 – (V) ± 3.6% 39% 39% – 22%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] September 14–16, 2025 – (V) – 44% 44% – 12%
Texas Public Opinion Research[110] August 27–29, 2025 320 (RV) – 32% 26% 13%[d] 29%
co/efficient (R)[111] August 25–27, 2025 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 36% 39% – 25%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 41% 48% – 11%
Echelon Insights[112] August 21–24, 2025 515 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 42% – 21%
Emerson College[113] August 11–12, 2025 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 30% 29% 5%[e] 36%
Texas Southern University[99] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 39% 44% – 17%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 42% 45% – 13%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 36% 47% – 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[101][102][E] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 57% – 5%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 33% 49% – 18%
UT Tyler[114] May 28 – June 7, 2025 538 (RV) – 34% 44% – 22%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[115][116][M] June 6–8, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 49% – 18%
UpONE Insights (R)[117][118][N] May 27–28, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 28% 50% – 21%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 34% 43% – 23%
Quantus Insights (R)[104][105][L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 52% – 9%
American Opportunity Alliance (R)[106][107] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 52% – 13%
The Tarrance Group (R)[108][I] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 40% 56% – –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 33% 48% – 19%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 33% 50% – 17%
Internal Republican Party poll[119] Mid–April 2025 605 (V) – 33% 50% – 17%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[91][H] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 35% 52% – 13%
Lake Research Partners (D)/
Slingshot Strategies (D)[120][O] 		March 7–10, 2025 – (RV) – 27% 38% 19%[f] 16%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[121] January 28 – February 2, 2025 – (V) – 28% 53% – 19%
Victory Insights (R)[122] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 42% – 25%
CWS Research (R)[123][P] July 9–10, 2022 1,918 (RV) ± 2.2% 31% 51% – 18%
John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Wesley
Hunt 		Undecided
J.L. Partners (R)[79] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 44% 23%
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 39% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[84][F] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 50% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][G] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 28% 45% 27%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 34% 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[98][H] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 37% 46% 17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 31% 30%
Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton 		Wesley
Hunt 		Undecided
J.L. Partners (R)[79] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% 22%
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 56% 33% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[84][F] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 45% 16%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 35% 15%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 25% 30%
John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Ronny
Jackson 		Chip
Roy 		Undecided
CWS Research (R)[124][P] October 19–23, 2022 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 14% 18% 33%
John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Someone
Else 		Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[122] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 40% 25%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Adefope
Republican Anna Bender
Republican Virgil Bierschwale
Republican Sara Canady
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent)
Republican Wesley Hunt
Republican Gulrez Khan
Republican Ken Paxton
Total votes 100.0%

Democratic primary

Background

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[125][126][127][128]

Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz in 2024, exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitated Jasmine Crockett's entry into the race.[129]

Campaign

Crockett and Talarico participated in a debate on January 24, 2026, hosted by the AFL-CIO in Georgetown. During the debate, both candidates expressed similar policy positions, attacking each other very little. Crockett defended her "firebrand" campaigning style as necessary to meet the political moment, while Talarico expressed a more mild approach and emphasized electability against Ken Paxton.[130] Talarico later drew controversy over allegations that he had called former rival Collin Allred a "mediocre Black man" compared to Crockett in a private conversation, which he disputed as a mischaracterization of his words, causing Allred to endorse Crockett.[131] The episode further exposed the racial tension between each candidate's base of support, with Crockett performing best among Black voters, Democrats' strongest voter base, and Talarico performing best among White and Latino voters, demographics which hold far more swing voters.[132]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Jasmine Crockett
U.S. representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
James Talarico
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Colin Allred (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Declined to endorse
U.S. representatives
Labor unions

Debates and forums

2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Crockett Hassan Talarico
1[161] January 24, 2026 Texas AFL-CIO Daniel Marin
Gromer Jeffers 		KXAN-TV P N P

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jasmine Crockett (D) $6,531,174 $910,538 $5,620,637
James Talarico (D) $13,152,583 $6,012,427 $7,140,156
Source: Federal Election Commission[72]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Jasmine
Crockett 		James
Talarico 		Other/Undecided
[i] 		Margin
270toWin[73] January 15 – February 9, 2026 February 9, 2026 42.5% 43.0% 14.5% Talarico +0.5%
RealClearPolitics[162] January 10–31, 2026 February 9, 2026 41.0% 41.0% 18.0%[j] Tied
VoteHub[163] September 19 – January 31, 2026 February 9, 2026 42.1% 38.8% 19.1% Crockett +3.3%
Average 41.9% 40.9% 17.2% Crockett +1.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Colin
Allred 		Jasmine
Crockett 		James
Talarico 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% – 47% 39% 2%[k] 12%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[164][O] January 14–21, 2026 1,290 (LV) ± 3.7% – 38% 37% 4%[l] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[165][Q] January 6–15, 2026 1,005 (LV) ± 3.2% – 46% 33% – 21%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 413 (LV) ± 4.8% – 38% 47% <1%[m] 15%
Texas Southern University[166] December 9–11, 2025 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% – 51% 43% – 6%
December 8, 2025 Allred withdraws from the race
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% – 52% 34% – 14%
46% – 42% – 8%
Impact Research (D)[167][R] October 23–29, 2025 836 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% – 48% – 9%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 42% – 30% 4%[n] 24%
Public Policy Polling (D)[168] September 3–4, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% – 32% – 27%
Emerson College[113] August 11–12, 2025 370 (RV) ± 5.1% 58% – – 8%[o] 34%
Texas Southern University[99] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% – 43% – 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Colin
Allred 		James
Talarico 		Joaquin
Castro 		Jasmine
Crockett 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% 13% 25% – 31% 25% – 6%
34% – – 57% – – 9%
38% – – – 55% – 7%
– – – 51% 41% – 8%
39% – – 54% – 7%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 25% – 13% 29% 31% 2%[p] –
Texas Public Opinion Research[110] August 27–29, 2025 270 (RV) – 13% 7% 4% 26% 27% 5%[q] 18%
Texas Southern University[99] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 38% – – – 58% – 4%
52% – – 41% – – 7%
NRSC (R)[169] July 4–7, 2025 566 (LV) ± 3.0% 20% – 13% 35% 13% – 18%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jasmine Crockett
Democratic Ahmad Hassan
Democratic James Talarico
Total votes 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[173] Likely R August 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report[174] Likely R October 14, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[175] Likely R August 12, 2025
Race To The WH[176] Tilt R January 12, 2026

Polling

John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Jasmine
Crockett (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 5%[r] 7%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% – 9%
Change Research (D)[177] November 21–26, 2025 1,189 (V) ± 3.1% 49% 41% – 10%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 44% – 6%

Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Jasmine
Crockett (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 4%[s] 8%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% – 9%
Change Research (D)[177] November 21–26, 2025 1,189 (V) ± 3.1% 50% 42% – 8%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 47% – 2%

Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Jasmine
Crockett (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 43% 3%[t] 8%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% – 9%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 45% – 5%

John Cornyn vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		James
Talarico (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 44% 43% 5%[r] 8%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[178] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% – 14%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 45% – 7%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 35% 7%[u] 17%

Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		James
Talarico (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 44% 3%[t] 7%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% – 9%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[178] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 44% – 12%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% – 5%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 8%[v] 17%

Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		James
Talarico (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[81] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 42% 3%[t] 9%
Emerson College[82] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 44% – 6%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 37% 6%[w] 21%
Hypothetical polling

John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[178] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% – 13%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 46% – 6%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 37% 7%[u] 13%
Emerson College[113] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 38% – 17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 44% – 8%

Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[178] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% – 12%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 47% – 5%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 41% 8%[v] 13%
GBAO (D)[179][S] August 13–18, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% – 4%
49% 50%[x] – –
Emerson College[113] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% – 13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% – 6%
Brad Parscale (R)[119] Mid–April 2025 >1,000 (LV) – 37% 52% – 11%

Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 50% 45% – 5%
UT Tyler[96] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 6%[w] 19%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9%

John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% 5%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 43% 8%

Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% 5%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 45% 6%

Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[94] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 47% 4%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 43% 8%

John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Joaquin
Castro (D) 		Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 41% 11%

Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Joaquin
Castro (D) 		Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% 9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Joaquin
Castro (D) 		Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[103] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 10%

John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R)[115][116][M] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 35% 23%

Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R)[115][116][M] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 42% 19%

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Texas Public Opinion Research[110] August 27–29, 2025 843 (RV) ± 4.6% 48% 43% 9%[y] –

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Sara Canady with 1%; "4 others" with <1%
  4. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  6. ^ Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
  7. ^ County executive
  8. ^
  9. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  10. ^ Ahmad Hassan with 1.5%
  11. ^ Ahmad Hassan with 2%
  12. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 4%
  13. ^ Hassan at <1%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  15. ^ Morgul with 4%; Swanson with 3%; Virts with 1%
  16. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  17. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 5%
  18. ^ a b Ted Brown (L) with 5%
  19. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  20. ^ a b c Ted Brown (L) with 3%
  21. ^ a b "Someone else" with 7%
  22. ^ a b "Someone else" with 8%
  23. ^ a b "Someone else" with 6%
  24. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 9%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Some candidates may have not published fundraising totals as of the filing deadline
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Paxton's campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Lone Star PAC, which supports Paxton
  4. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, which supports Cornyn
  5. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
  6. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Standing For Texas, who support Hunt[109]
  7. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group
  9. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Hunt's campaign
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by One Nation, which supports Cornyn
  12. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
  14. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
  15. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by Crockett's campaign
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaign
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign

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