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2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election

Not to be confused with 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election
TBD 2026
Riding of Scarborough Southwest
 
CPC
Candidate Doly Begum TBD
Party Liberal Conservative
Last election 61.41% 30.68%
Incumbent MP

Vacant[a]


A by-election will be held in the federal riding of Scarborough Southwest in Ontario, Canada, following the announced resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Bill Blair on February 2, 2026.

Background

Early speculation

In September 2025, The Globe and Mail reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney was considering appointing former cabinet minister Bill Blair to a senior diplomatic post, with sources indicating he was being considered for the role of Canada’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. The report said the potential appointment was viewed as part of an effort to recognize former senior ministers and create opportunities to recruit new cabinet talent following the formation of Carney’s government.[1]

The article noted that Blair, who had served as minister of national defence and minister of public safety, had not been included in Carney’s new cabinet despite being regarded by sources as a competent minister. It also reported that his riding of Scarborough Southwest was considered a safe Liberal seat in the event a by-election were triggered by a diplomatic appointment.[1]

In January 2026, CBC News reported that Blair was among former ministers expected to receive diplomatic appointments that would require them to vacate their seats, citing prior media reporting and statements from the prime minister indicating that multiple by-elections were anticipated.[2]

Neither Blair nor his office provided public comment at the time of the reports, and no appointment timeline was announced.[1][2]

Announcement

On February 2, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that former cabinet minister Bill Blair would resign as member of Parliament for Scarborough Southwest to accept an appointment as Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Blair previously served as Toronto’s chief of police before being elected to the House of Commons in 2015, and later held cabinet positions including minister of public safety and minister of national defence.[3][4]

Blair’s departure resulted in a vacancy in Scarborough Southwest and marked the second Toronto-area seat to be vacated in 2026, following Chrystia Freeland’s resignation earlier in the year. The appointment filled a diplomatic vacancy created by the conclusion of Ralph Goodale’s posting in London.[3][4]

Constituency

Main article: Scarborough Southwest (federal electoral district)

Scarborough Southwest is an urban riding in the southwestern part of Scarborough in Toronto, encompassing the area from Lake Ontario in the south to Eglinton Avenue East in the north, and from Victoria Park Avenue in the west to Markham Road in the east. It includes the neighbourhoods of Birch Cliff, Oakridge, Cliffside, Kennedy Park, Clairlea, and Cliffcrest, as well as parts of Scarborough Village and the Golden Mile.

Timing

The Chief Electoral Officer of Canada received formal notification of the vacancy from the Speaker of the House of Commons of Canada on February 2, 2026. The date of the by-election must be announced between February 13 and August 1, 2026. The by-election must be held on a Monday, at least 36 days but no more than 50 days after the day the by-election is announced. Accordingly, the earliest date that the Scarborough Southwest by-election could be held is March 23, 2026, and the latest is September 14, 2026.[5]

Candidates

Liberal Party

On February 3, 2026, the Liberal Party appointed Ontario MPP and Ontario New Democratic Party deputy leader Doly Begum as their candidate. She resigned from the Ontario NDP on the same day as well as her seat in the Ontario legislature.[6]

Conservative Party

New Democratic Party

Green Party

On January 21, Green Party Canada announced Pooja Malhotra as their candidate. [7]

Result

Canadian federal by-election, TBD 2026: Scarborough Southwest
Resignation of Bill Blair
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Doly Begum
Green Pooja Malhotra
Conservative TBD
New Democratic TBD
Total valid votes/expense limit
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters
Source:

Previous result

2025 Canadian federal election: Scarborough Southwest
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Bill Blair 33,395 61.41 +3.45
Conservative Asm Tarun 16,682 30.68 +10.09
New Democratic Fatima Shaban 2,710 4.98 –11.01
Green Amanda Cain 753 1.38 –0.87
People's Michael Poulin 565 1.04 –1.84
Centrist Imran Khan 165 0.30 N/A
Marxist–Leninist Christine Nugent 113 0.21 N/A
Total valid votes/expense limit
Total rejected ballots
Turnout 54,383 63.56
Eligible voters 85,555
Liberal notional hold Swing –3.72
Source: Elections Canada[8][9]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Seat last held by Bill Blair (Liberal)

References

  1. ^ a b c Fife, Robert (September 3, 2025). "Two former Liberal cabinet ministers in line for top diplomatic posts, sources say". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  2. ^ a b Major, Darren (January 26, 2026). "Freeland resignation shakes up already fluid situation in House of Commons". CBC News. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  3. ^ a b Robertson, Dylan (February 2, 2026). "Bill Blair to resign Toronto seat, become next high commissioner to U.K." The Globe and Mail. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  4. ^ a b "Bill Blair resigning seat, will become next high commissioner to U.K." CTV News. The Canadian Press. February 2, 2026. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  5. ^ "A Federal Seat Is Vacant in Scarborough Southwest". Elections Canada. February 4, 2026. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  6. ^ "Ontario NDP MPP resigns to run for federal Liberals in upcoming byelection". Global News. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  7. ^ "OUR CANDIDATE 2026 | Green Party of Canada". Retrieved February 10, 2026.https://www.green-ssw.ca/candidate_2026/
  8. ^ "Voter information service". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 18, 2025.
  9. ^ "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. April 29, 2025. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
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