2026 Kazakh constitutional referendum

2026 Kazakh constitutional referendum

15 March 2026 (2026-03-15)
Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on 12 February 2026?

A republican referendum is scheduled to be held in Kazakhstan on 15 March 2026 to determine whether to approve a new Constitution of Kazakhstan.[1][2] The referendum follows President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's 2025 State of the Nation Address, in which he announced parliamentary reforms aimed at amending the 1995 Constitution.[3]

Although the referendum had initially been planned for 2027 to consider a package of amendments,[4] the broad scope of the proposed reforms — including restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights — led to discussions on adopting an entirely new Constitution.[5][6] A working group was subsequently formed, followed by the establishment of a Constitutional Commission tasked with drafting the new text.[7] After holding a series of meetings and conducting public consultations that gathered thousands of proposals from citizens and experts, the commission finalized the draft and submitted it to Tokayev on 11 February 2026.[8][9] On the same day, Tokayev signed a decree on holding of the republican referendum.[10]

If approved by a majority of voters, a new third Constitution will take effect on 1 July 2026.[11]

Background

Following Kazakhstan's independence in 1991, the Constitution of Kazakhstan has undergone several revisions and replacements through referendums and legislative amendments. The 1995 constitutional referendum replaced the 1993 Constitution, establishing a strong semi-presidential system and a bicameral parliament consisting of the Mäjilis and the Senate. The bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan was controversial, as the unitary state had no precedent for two chambers, it failed to improve representation or legislative quality, and the rise of Amanat's ruling party dominance weakened the Senate,[12][13] which political scientist Sultanbek Sultangaliev described as the upper house as a "Chamber of Honorary Pensioners" duplicating the Mäjilis' functions,[14] prompting democratic opposition-led calls since the late 1990s and early 2000s to return to a unicameral system.[15]

In the years that followed, further amendments were introduced to the 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan, gradually adjusting the balance of power between the presidency, parliament, and other state institutions. In June 2022, a nationwide referendum supported by 77% of voters approved a major package of amendments to the 1995 Constitution.[16][17] The reforms reduced the powers of the presidency, strengthened Parliament, abolished the privileged constitutional status of the Elbasy (Leader of the Nation), and reinforced provisions on human rights and institutional accountability.[18][19][20] Officials presented the referendum as laying the foundations of a "New Kazakhstan" in the aftermath of the January Events.[21][22] A separate package of amendments was adopted by Parliament in September 2022, introducing a new restriction on the presidency: a single, non-renewable seven-year term.[23] The same measure also restored the capital's name from Nur-Sultan to Astana.[24]

Following President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's political reset that concluded with the 2023 legislative elections, some Kazakh and independent media speculated that the authorities might once again consider constitutional reforms, either to extend presidential powers or restructure state institutions.[25] In January 2024, President Tokayev dismissed these rumours in an interview with Egemen Qazaqstan, asserting that the seven-year presidential term "will never change again" and that no further changes to the Constitution were planned for the near future.[26][27]

On the eve of the 30th anniversary of the 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan, debate over the document's future arose as Kazakh online media reported an independently drafted third constitution by legal scholar Jumageldy Eliubaev, proposing changes to the structure of government, parliamentary powers, presidential terms, and state symbolism.[28] According to Orda.kz, Eliubaev's draft—published on the legal information platform "PARAGRAF" before later being shortly removed—allegedly attracted interest within the presidential administration amidst lingering uncertainty over the direction of Kazakhstan's constitutional future.[29] However, during the address, President Tokayev noted that while proposals for a new constitution had been discussed, reforms over the years, including changes after the 2022 referendum, had modernized the Basic Law and preserved its core principles, ruling out calls for a complete replacement.[30]

Nevertheless, on 8 September 2025, President Tokayev, at the State of the Nation Address, proposed holding a referendum on parliamentary reforms, noting that the proposals should be thoroughly discussed over the coming year, with a referendum possibly taking place in 2027.[31]

Electoral system

In Kazakhstan, a constitutional referendum is defined as a republican referendum (Kazakh: республикалық референдум). Republican referendums are regulated by the Constitutional Law No. 2592 "On Republican Referendum" in the 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan, which defines them as "a national vote on drafts of the Constitution, constitutional laws, laws, and decisions on other most important issues of public life in the Republic of Kazakhstan".[32]

In accordance with Article 10 of the Constitutional Law "On Republican Referendum", the exclusive right to call a republican referendum is reserved to the president of Kazakhstan.[33] At the same time, Parliament, the government, or at least 200,000 citizens representing all regions of the republic may submit a proposal to the president to hold a referendum.[34]

Under Article 17, the president may call a referendum on proposed constitutional amendments, introduce amendments and additions to the Constitution without conducting a referendum, or reject the proposed changes entirely. A presidential rejection may be overridden by a four-fifths majority vote of both houses of Parliament.[35] Article 18 provides that a decision to hold a referendum is established by presidential decree, which sets the date of the vote, the issue or issues submitted to referendum, and the legal consequences of its outcome. The text of the draft Constitution or amendments must subsequently be published in the mass media.[36]

Pursuant to Article 19, a referendum must be held no earlier than one month and no later than three months after the issuance of the decree, although the president may establish different terms in exceptional cases.[37]

Article 31 stipulates that decision on the issue submitted to referendum is considered as adopted only if at least 50% of registered voters participate, a simple majority vote "yes" and for constitutional changes, more than half of voters in at least two-thirds of the regions, cities of republican significance (including the capital of Astana) approve it.[38]

Preparations

On 8 October 2025, President Tokayev signed a decree establishing a 33-member Working Group on Parliamentary Reform, led by State Counsellor Erlan Qarin.[39] The group includes deputies from the Mäjilis and the Senate, members of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan, leaders of parliamentary party factions, as well as heads of scientific institutes, prominent scholars specializing in constitutional law and the theory of state and law, and experts and members of the National Kurultai.[40][41]

Between October 2025 and January 2026, the working group held a total of six meetings, during which seven political parties and 16 public organizations submitted proposals for constitutional reform, and discussions focused on the composition of the future parliament, its term of office, number of deputies, quotas, electoral procedures, interaction with other branches of power, the main directions of the legislative process, and the parliament's powers in ensuring the functioning of state bodies.[42]

During the 5th meeting of the National Kurultai, Tokayev assessed that the anticipated number of amendments would be much greater and described the process as a "step toward" adopting a new Constitution.[43]

Drafting

On 21 January 2026, Tokayev signed a decree establishing the Constitutional Commission, composed of over 120 members, including National Kurultai representatives, prominent lawyers, media leaders, local assembly (mäslihat) chairpersons, regional public council members, and other professionals, and headed by Constitutional Court chairwoman Elvira Äzimova.[44][45]

On 31 January, after six meetings, the Constitutional Commission reported to Tokayev that planned amendments affecting about 84% of the 1995 Constitution had led it to conclude that a completely new Constitution should be drafted, proposed publishing the first full draft for public discussion.[46] Majilis deputy Snejanna Imasheva noted that this approach complies with Paragraph 9 of Article 26 of the Law "On Legal Acts", which requires adoption of a new edition if more than half of a legal act is amended.[47] The first draft of the new Constitution was published the same day, consisting of a preamble, 11 sections and 95 articles, with an updated preamble emphasizing national values and prioritizing human capital, education, science and innovation.[48] For the first time, the draft constitution's preamble defines human rights and freedoms as the Kazakh state's top priority, including the right to life, personal inviolability, data protection, and a Miranda rule.[49]

Throughout early February, the Constitutional Commission continued to hold meetings to refine the draft constitution, incorporating public and expert feedback. Among the revisions were adjustments to the wording of the provision on the status of the Russian language in state institutions,[50] clarification of constitutional guarantees concerning free education and universal health care,[51] proposals to strengthen protections of private property and housing rights,[52][53][54] and discussions on institutional mechanisms such as the grounds and procedure for the dissolution of Parliament.[55]

Official submission and final draft

On 11 February 2026, at its 12th meeting, the Constitutional Commission declared that the draft of the new Constitution was ready for a nationwide referendum.[56] That same day, the commission submitted its final draft of the new Constitution to President Tokayev, who praised the commission's work, highlighted the draft's role in modernizing institutional foundations and supporting sustainable development, noted the high level of public discussion and participation, announcing that he would sign a decree to hold a republican referendum on its adoption in "near future".[57][58]

The final draft, published on 12 February 2026, comprised a preamble and 95 articles across 11 sections, addressing the foundations of Kazakhstan's constitutional order, human rights, state institutions, and procedures for constitutional amendments. Among the notable provisions:[59]

  • Foundations of the constitutional order: The draft affirms Kazakhstan as a democratic, secular, unitary state, emphasizes the rule of law, and guarantees the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. It defines state symbols and establishes Kazakh as the state language, while Russian is recognized for official use.
  • Human rights and freedoms: Individual rights are prioritized throughout the document. The draft explicitly abolishes the death penalty, protects privacy and digital rights, guarantees family and personal freedoms, and affirms freedom of conscience and religion.
  • Structure of government: A unicameral parliament (Kurultai) with 145 deputies elected under a proportional system is established. The draft also introduces a vice president and a People's Council to serve as a national dialogue platform.
  • Judiciary and legal oversight: Judicial independence is reinforced, with provisions for the Constitutional Court and courts of general jurisdiction.
  • Local self-government: Municipalities and regions are granted autonomy, with clearly defined powers and responsibilities.
  • Electoral and referendum provisions: Citizens' rights to participate in governance through free elections and referendum are codified, alongside procedures for amending the Constitution.
  • Social and cultural rights: Gender equality, the protection of traditional family values, secular education, and the promotion of culture, science, and innovation are highlighted.
  • Environmental and sustainable development principles: The state's responsibility for natural resources and ecological protection is recognized, alongside commitments to sustainable development.

According to the Constitutional Commission, the final text incorporated editorial and substantive revisions based on approximately 10,000 proposals received during the public consultation process.

Ballot question and referendum date

Speculation about the date of the referendum has arisen, with political scientist Gaziz Abishev suggesting that, if the presidential decree on referendum date were issued during the 5th meeting of the National Kurultai, the vote could take place as early as 22 March 2026, coinciding with the Nowruz holiday and immediately following Eid al-Fitr.[60][61] However, on 20 January 2026, President Tokayev at the 5th meeting of the National Kurultai stated that the date for the republican referendum would be set after the Constitutional Commission analyzed and summarized all proposals and prepared a draft of the specific changes.[62]

On 11 February 2026, President Tokayev signed a decree setting the referendum on the draft of the new Constitution for 15 March 2026 and approving the official referendum question, which was to appear on ballots in the Kazakh and Russian languages as follows:[63][64]

Kazakh: Жобасы бұқаралық ақпарат құралдарында 2026 жылғы 12 ақпанда жарияланған Қазақстан Республикасының жаңа Конституциясын қабылдайсыз ба?
Russian: Принимаете ли Вы новую Конституцию Республики Казахстан, проект которой опубликован в средствах массовой информации 12 февраля 2026 года?
English translation: "Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the media on 12 February 2026?"

Calendar plan

On 12 February 2026, following the issuance of the presidential decree on the referendum, the Central Referendum Commission adopted Resolution No. 6/10 "On approval of the calendar plan of main events for the preparation and conduct of the republican referendum scheduled for 15 March 2026",[65] which established the following timetable:[66][67]

  • 12 February – 14 March 2026: Campaigning period
  • 21 February 2026: Approval of commission compositions and precinct boundaries
  • 22 February 2026: Transmission of voter lists
  • 27 February – 4 March 2026: Informing citizens of voting locations and times
  • 12–14 March 2026: Delivery of ballots to precincts
  • 14 March 2026: Election silence
  • 15 March 2026: Main voting day (7:00 – 20:00 UTC+5)

Positions

Choice Parties Political orientation Leader Ref
Parliamentary
checkY In support For the People's Constitution of a Fair and Progressive Kazakhstan! Reformism Erlan Qoşanov
Amanat Big tent Erlan Qoşanov [68]
Auyl Agrarianism Serik Egizbaev [69]
Respublica E-democracy Aidarbek Qojanazarov [70]
Aq Jol National liberalism Azat Peruaşev [71]
People's Party of Kazakhstan Democratic socialism Ermukhamet Ertisbaev [72]
Nationwide Social Democratic Party Social democracy Ashat Raqymjanov [73]
Non-parliamentary
Baytaq Green politics Azamathan Ämirtai [74]

Campaign

In support

Logo used by the All-National Coalition in campaign support of the referendum

Aidos Sarym, a deputy of the Mäjilis and member of the Constitutional Commission, stated that the commission was prepared to establish a republican headquarters and visit all regions of the country, emphasizing its experience, willingness to listen to citizens, and confidence that the reform was historically justified.[75]

On 12 February 2026, a All-National Coalition "For the People's Constitution of a Fair and Progressive Kazakhstan!" was established in Astana, uniting representatives of five political parties and more than 300 public organizations in support of the draft new Constitution. The coalition, headed by Mäjilis chairman Erlan Qoşanov (Amanat), stated that the proposed Basic Law would modernize the political system, strengthen social guarantees, and expand citizen participation in governance, and announced plans to conduct nationwide outreach and campaign activities ahead of the referendum.[76][77]

On 13 February 2026, regional headquarters of the coalition were opened across Kazakhstan.[78] On 15 February, the All-National Coalition organized a youth concert at Khan Shatyr in Astana, attended by more than 10,000 people in support of the constitutional referendum, featuring performances by famous Kazakhstani artists and speeches encouraging participation while emphasizing modernization, sovereignty, civic engagement, and institutional reform.[79][80]

Media coverage

On 14 February 2026, the Qazaqstan TV channel hosted a six-hour live online marathon "Referendum-2026" from 12:00 to 18:00 UTC+5.[81][82] The broadcast widely covered by republican television channels and major internet portals on YouTube and Facebook, during which around 100 experts, lawmakers, lawyers, and public figures discussed key provisions of the draft Constitution, including sovereignty, human rights, law and order, parliamentary reform, environmental and social policy, and other proposed changes.[83][84]

Observation

On 12 February 2026, the Central Referendum Commission (ORK) announced the invitation of international observers from foreign states and organizations to monitor the referendum on the adoption of the new Constitution, with accreditation managed through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.[85] Deputy Chairman of the ORK, Muqtar Erman, stated that invitations were sent to more than 30 countries across Europe, America, Asia, and the CIS region, and that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would also invite major international organizations.[86]

OSCE

On 4 February 2026, during a meeting with representatives of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), Kazakh authorities expressed their readiness to discuss the possible deployment of an election observation mission to monitor the referendum following consultations with election officials, with ODIHR director Maria Telalian indicated the organization's willingness to consider sending an observation mission.[87][88]

Controversies

On 13 February 2026, the Administrative Court of Almaty fined Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent Maqpal Muqanqyzy for violating regulations governing public opinion polling during the referendum campaign after she posted a social media question asking whether respondents planned to participate in the referendum.[89] The court imposed a fine of 15 MIC (₸64,875), later reduced by 30 percent due to family circumstances. Muqanqyzy rejected the accusation, arguing that the post did not constitute a formal public opinion poll and did not influence the referendum process, and announced plans to appeal. Defense motions seeking clarification from election authorities on whether social media polls fall under electoral legislation were dismissed by the court.[90][91] Following the ruling, media lawyer Olga Didenko called on the Central Election Commission (CEC) to clarify whether social media user polls qualify as public opinion polling under the law, arguing that equating informal online voting tools with formal sociological surveys creates legal uncertainty due to the absence of recognized research methodology, sampling, and representativeness standards.[92]

The CEC in publicly issued response clarified that referendum-related public opinion polls must be conducted by registered legal entities with at least five years of sociological experience, notified in advance, adhere to strict methodological and publication standards, and that publishing results within five days before or on voting day is prohibited, with violations subject to administrative penalties.[93]

Opinion polls

Fieldwork date Sample size Polling firm checkYYes ☒NNo Don't know Lead
12 Feb 2026 Final draft of the new Constitution published and submitted to the referendum
1–5 Feb 2026 1,200 Institute for Democracy 84.7 13.5 71.2
24–28 Jan 2026 1,200 Public Opinion 78.4 18.8 2.9 59.6
21 Jan 2026 Preliminary draft of the new Constitution released for public discussion

Conduct

Elections in Kazakhstan are prepared and conducted by various bodies of election commissions.

Preparations

On 12 February 2026, the ORK held a meeting to approve the calendar plan and organizational framework for the 15 March referendum. Preparations included training more than 71,000 territorial and precinct commission members, organizing accreditation of international observers and foreign media, distributing ballots and draft Constitution texts to polling stations, implementing accessibility measures for voters with disabilities, and establishing public information systems such as hotlines and media briefings to inform citizens about the referendum process.[85]

A total of 10,413 polling stations were established for the 2026 referendum, including 9,779 at citizens' places of permanent registration and 634 in temporary locations. Additionally, 82 polling stations were set up abroad across 64 countries to facilitate overseas voting.[94][95]

Voter registration

By 1 July and 1 January every year, information on voters and the boundaries of polling stations are submitted by the local executive bodies (akimats) in electronic form to their territorial election commissions, which ensure the verification and submission of information to the higher election commissions.[96] At a briefing on 12 February 2026, member of the ORK Azamat Aimanakumov stated that 12,416,759 citizens were included in the voter list as of 1 January 2026.[97]

For the 2026 referendum, voter registration and related procedures followed the deadlines set by the Chapter 4 of the Constitutional Law "On the Republican Referendum" and the associated electoral regulations.[98] Local executive bodies (akimats) were responsible for compiling the voter lists at the place of residence, updating them to reflect recent migration or submitted applications, and submitting them to the precinct and territorial referendum commissions.[96] Voter lists had to be compiled and submitted by akim (local head) no later than 20 days before the vote (22 February 2026). From 15 days before the referendum (27 February 2026), citizens were able to review and verify their inclusion in the voter lists. Finally, precinct commissions were required to notify voters of the time and place of voting at least 10 days before the referendum (4 March 2026).[99]

Referendum spending

At a briefing on 12 February 2026, ORK member Mikhail Bortnik announced that the estimated cost of holding the republican referendum would amount to 20.8 billion tenge, with 75% allocated to salaries of polling station commission members, and noted that the funds would be drawn from the government reserve as they were not provided in the year 2026 republican budget.[100] Vice Minister of Finance Dauren Temirbekov added that the total cost was expected to exceed the 15.5 billion tenge spent on the 2024 referendum, citing population growth and inflation as contributing factors.[101][102][103]

On 19 February 2026, the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan announced that 20.7 billion tenge had been allocated from the government reserve for the referendum, including 20.6 billion tenge to the Central Election Commission — of which 15.6 billion (75%) was for remuneration of 71,044 commission members and 4.9 billion (25%) for organizational measures such as printing ballots and information support — along with an additional 123.6 million tenge for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to service overseas polling stations, while reiterating that foreign or international financing of referendum-related activities is prohibited by law.[104][105]

Online voting

At a meeting of the ORK on 12 February 2026, Vice Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Rostislav Konyashkin stated that electronic voting was unlikely for the upcoming referendum due to the need for legislative amendments and broader legal, technical, and organizational reforms, emphasizing concerns over vote secrecy and the integrity of the electoral process.[106] CEC chairman Nurlan Äbdirov added that paper ballots remain significantly cheaper than electronic voting and cited international examples, notably South Korea, where electronic voting is not used on the main election day despite technological availability.[107]

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